The Colossus of the North

As a very infrequent visitor to the United Arab Emirates, I'm struck by the federation's deep concern about Iran. As an American living in London, my own preoccupation with Iran focuses on four points: 1) will it militarize its nuclear energy program? 2) if so,  when? 3) what are the United States, Britain, France and Germany going to do about it, and 4) what is Israel going to do about it.

These are serious concerns, obviously, but they feel almost antiseptic and academic compared to the gut fear experienced by the people and the powers-that-be in Abu Dhabi, the UAE federal capital, and Dubai, its largest city and financial capital, where I spent last week. There, the threat of Iran is up close and personal. Iran has long been a regional power, but for years it was kept in check by its neighbor Iraq. Once upon a time, the United States recognized this; hence, Washington's erstwhile backing of Saddam Hussein against Iran after the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, Washington's previous regional best friend, by the Islamic Revolution under by Ayatollah Khomeini. The U.S.-led war in Iraq has now completely undone the old balance of power in the region and left the UAE feeling particularly vulnerable to Iranian power plays. What the rest of the world might consider to be medium-size provocations or disruptions, like preventing oil-tanker traffic and other trade through the Strait of Hormuz, would be devastating for the UAE.

The UAE has sought to counter the Iranian threat by cementing its ties to the world beyond the greater Middle East. Those ties are clear. Dubai is a highly air-conditioned Western-Asian financial capital that happens to be perfectly situated at a longtime trading crossroads. Abu Dhabi, the largest of the seven emirates, is one of the world's largest oil producers and as such enjoys the protection of the United States and Europe. Less well known is the extent to which the UAE has sought to be seen as an ally to U.S. geopolitical causes. The UAE (population ca. 5 million) has a small number of troops -- less than 200 -- in Afghanistan, for example.

Most recently, the UAE has sought to counter the Iranian nuclear threat with a very different nuclear threat of its own. Abu Dhabi is forming "transparent" partnerships with nuclear nations like the United States and France in order to develop peaceful nuclear energy, which it will need (to desalinate sea water and produce electricity, for example) as oil and natural gas reserves are depleted. In contrast to Iran (so far, at least), the UAE is happy to let an international body enrich the uranium it would need for nuclear power in order to demonstrate its unwillingness to become a nuclear-weapons power. The UAE approach, which is being done in coordination with other states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, sends out two quite canny messages. One, that Iran, too, could go down this road. And two, as Abdulaziz Sager's Dubai-based Gulf Research Center has pointed out, that the UAE and other GCC members are leaving their options open to develop a military nuclear program down the road.